3 Thoughts On The Catalonian Independence Referendum

3 Thoughts On The Catalonian Independence Referendum
October 2, 2017 Admin

Greetings men-

These events in Spain regarding Catalonian independence have really been surprising.

The modus operandi of the EU seems to be a long, uniform slog into suicide, where nothing much happens that hasn’t been put into the timeline by a bunch of bureaucrats ten years previously.

The intensity of this situation in Spain though is definitely not something I would have expected.

With that being the case, the question to ask, as always, is: Is it good for Reconquest and Preservation?




The situation referenced is a referendum on Catalonian independence that the region’s citizens in Spain had yesterday, which the government had banned and cracked down on with violence.

From CNN:

Spain is facing a political crisis after Catalans voted in favor of independence in a contested referendum that descended into violence when police launched a widespread crackdown on the vote.

The Catalan government said it had earned the right to independence from Spain after results showed 90% of those who voted were in favor of a split.

But amid an unexpectedly harsh response from Spanish police to the vote, which was declared illegal by Spain’s top court, turnout was under 50%.

Some 844 people were injured as riot police raided polling stations Sunday, dragged away voters and fired rubber bullets during clashes — scenes that reverberated across Europe.

“Today, on this day of hope and also suffering, citizens of Catalonia have won the right to have an independent state,” said Carles Puigdemont, the region’s president.

The Catalan government blamed Madrid for a heavy-handed police operation and called on the European Union to respond.

“I want to make clear that all responsibility, all violence acts, repression is exclusively on the government of Rajoy, ” the region’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Raül Romeva said.

“Today Europe has to choose, shame or dignity. Violence or democracy, this is our demand. With this demand, we begin to work for a response to these circumstances. The absence of a response would suppose a lack and loss of credibility to the EU and its institutions.”

Spain’s Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said that the vote was illegitimate.

“At this point, I can tell you very clearly: Today a self-determination referendum in Catalonia didn’t happen,” he said in a televised speech.

Catalan nationalists argue the region is a separate nation with its own history, culture and language, and that it should have increased fiscal independence.

Catalonia’s separatist government pushed forward with the vote despite opposition from Madrid and a ruling from the country’s top court declaring it illegal.

Spain’s national government in Madrid has ardently resisted separation.

In the runup to the vote, national authorities seized ballot papers, voter lists and campaign material. Thousands of extra national police were sent to the region and high-ranking Catalan officials involved in organizing the referendum were arrested…

…Catalonia’s campaign to break away has been gaining momentum since 2010, when Spain’s economy plunged during the financial crisis. Catalonia held a symbolic poll in 2014, in which 80% of voters backed complete secession — but only 32% of the electorate turned out.




Peter Turchin– who I will be referencing quite a bit in my new book– had some interesting things to say about the referendum on his website.

From PeterTurchin.com:

…Human societies evolve, and laws must evolve with them. And this leads me to why the Catalonian referendum is interesting from the point of view of Cultural Evolution.

The theoretically interesting question is what is the optimal size of a politically independent unit (“polity”) in today’s world. Clearly, optimal size changes with time and social environment.

We know empirically that the optimal size of a European state took a step up following 1500. As a result, the number of independent polities in Europe decreased from many hundreds in 1500 to just over 30 in 1900. The reason was the introduction of gunpowder that greatly elevated war intensity. The new evolutionary regime eliminated almost all of the small states, apart from a few special cases (like the Papacy or Monaco).

In today’s Europe, however, war has ceased to be an evolutionary force. It may change, but since 1945 the success or failure of European polities has been largely determined by their ability to deliver high levels of living standards to their citizens…

[Therefore] the question becomes: will Catalonia be better off as an independent state, or an autonomous province with Spain (as it is now)?

My conclusion: nobody really knows whether independence will make the life of most Catalonians better, or worse. Thus, I say: if the majority of Catalonians vote for secession, let them have it.

If they are willing to run an experiment using themselves as subjects, they certainly have the right to do so, and their experience will be useful to other regions (e.g. Scotland) that currently contemplate independence.

And it’s much more than a scientific issue. The only way for our societies to become better in all kinds of ways (wealthier, more just, more efficient) is to allow cultural evolution a free rein. More specifically, we need cultural group selection at the level of polities.

A major problem for the humanity is finding ways to have such cultural group selection to take place without violence. Which is why I find the current moves by Madrid to suppress the Catalonian independence vote by force criminally reckless. It seems that Madrid still wants to go back to the world as it was in the nineteenth century (or more accurately, Europe between 1500 and 1900).


My Thoughts

Turchin’s politics are different than mine I’m sure, but I think his analysis demonstrates the gulf between his own views and the progressive narrative which our elites adhere to.

Turchin believes that the world is ever-evolving, and that the future can be good or bad based on our decisions now, and what choices we make and how hard we work at things. It is optimistic but rational and realistic. This is an ‘ascendant’ view of the future, as I call it.

Progressives, on the other hand, have become wedded to a utopian view of the future. They believe that we are on a predestined track toward a wonderful multicultural utopia, and that anything that retards that pre-ordained progression is wrong.

While it doesn’t seem that the Catalan vote is a big left/right thing, I do think that ANY such nationalism is a stick in the eye of Brussels.

Following from that, I think this independence vote is good for several reasons.

  • It gets the idea of secession in the public mind. This is huge, as the only way parts of countries like Sweden and Germany and the UK can still survive is if certain portions of them secede.
  • It brings to bear the connection between culture/language/heritage and statehood, an idea anathema to our globalist liberal enemies.
  • The referendum, and more specifically the violence surrounding it, is a bit of K-Selection to a massively r-Selected Occidental populace.



I think this referendum on Catalonian independence has been a definite net positive.

Even though the folks in Catalonia who will be/would be ruling the newly formed country are converged progressives themselves, and even though the new nation would be joining the EU and doing lots of other disappointing things, I still think the situation is a net plus for the preservationist cause.

The question that comes to mind is, of course, which regions of Europe will copy Catalonia’s lead and attempt to secede next? Will parts of the UK, Sweden, and Germany follow suit in an effort to save themselves? And will the insane ideologues in charge of the EU ever allow them to without a fight?

Very interesting questions.






Editor’s Note:

If you like the above Peter Turchin article then check out his books, listed below:

Ultrasociety: How 10,000 Years of War Made Humans the Greatest Cooperators on Earth

War and Peace and War: The Rise and Fall of Empires

Secular Cycles

Oh, and there’s also a very visually-impressive semi-fantasy movie called Pan’s Labyrinth about the Spanish Civil War, but it is super left-wing and portrays the ‘Loyalists’ as angels and the ‘Nationalists’ as evil psychopaths. Here it is though: Pan’s Labyrinth




Comments (14)

  1. Telemaco 3 months ago

    Catalonia is a case similar to California, instead of Mexicans has an immense Muslim community because they preferred to have non-Spanish speakers, so they can teach the Catalan language, and the Catalan elite is liberal. It does not seem very promising future Catalan although it could be one of the first zones in Europe to wake up.

    • Author
      Admin 3 months ago

      Yeah good points Telemaco. Indeed if the Catalans were more right-wing by nature and stuff like that I’d be jumping up and down cheering. With them preaching the same effeminite liblabery we see everywhere else in Western Europe it definitely takes the edge off, although still cool.

  2. shadowman 3 months ago

    It is **definitely** good for us! It is another nice big chunk of uncertainty/volatility being added into the “mix”.

    I have been thinking / hoping that a few Spanish who are peeved off at Islam’s resurgence there might take the opportunity of this uncertainty to hit back at the Muslims. Maybe a few mosque-burnings (always good to see).
    Maybe a few Muslim houses burnt down.

    • SteveRogers42 2 months ago

      Shadow, I like the cut of your jib!

      • Author
        Admin 2 months ago


  3. Freddy 3 months ago

    To the question whether a development as in Catalonia is good, I have thought of the following:
    A secession is always a weakening of the superordinate power, in this case Spain and the EU.
    So we should only consider whether the current Spanish elites or the EU are on our side or not and we have the answer;-)

    • Author
      Admin 2 months ago

      Great point Freddy. Indeed the whole direction of these sick characters is more towards global one world government, so even if the people seceding are full on pot smoking transgender-polio-eskimos, its still a structural hit on the globalist system. Obviously the ideal situation is full-on Identitarian traditionalists seceding, but secession itself is a plus either way.

    • Author
      Admin 2 months ago

      Jesus Christ…

      Actually the ‘How To Marry A Finnish Girl’ one was more enraging than the polygamy one. I don’t really have anything against polygamy itself (indeed I think it would be a good strategy with which to build back Occidental demographics!), but the Islamization factor is just insane. I am glad Infowars referenced Swedes becoming a minority in the next 25 years and linked to that Speisa article. That is a fact we need to spread around as much as humanly possible.

  4. SteveRogers42 2 months ago

    Nice analysis, Julian. Thanks for pulling that together.

    • Author
      Admin 2 months ago

      My pleasure. I had meant to do the same with the German election but it was too depressing lol. Not a ton of insights to make on that one anyway, despite the hysteria about the AfD’s 12% showing (which is good, I suppose).

  5. Rick 2 months ago

    I like his analysis, I lived in Spain for several years, and I think it’s days are numbered. Valencia will probably be the next region to look for independence (they also have their own language) and of course the Basques will want full independence as well. Ultimately I think this is good for the cause even if it is a type of leftist nationalism as we saw in Quebec. Small “polities” will encourage best practices within those areas & ethane homogeneity will be much easier to achieve, although violence seems more likely as the number of fault lines increase they will be more localized and more 4G in nature.

    • Author
      Admin 2 months ago

      Yeah its interesting this ended up occuring with Catalonia rather than the Basques. They had been the hardcore secessionist ones for decades. Indeed if I remember right it got pretty heated and violent between them and them and the Spanish government right? I think most people back them might have been surprised at Catalonia seceding first, if I am thinking about it correctly.

  6. SteveRogers42 2 months ago

    The Chateau weighs in on Catalonia and decentralization:


Leave a reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *