Five Interesting Economic Angles To The Situation In Europe

Five Interesting Economic Angles To The Situation In Europe
March 19, 2017 Admin

So, as I said the other day when discussing my 2017 Preservationist ‘Talent Stack’, I have been diving into economics and becoming a big ol’ nerd in that regard. Now… don’t worry men…. I’m not gonna becoming some uber-nerd Autiste discussing von Mises and engaging in Ayn Rand fan-fic, nor am I going to really go off the deep end and become a Libertarian(!)…I’m not that far gone.

Rather I am interested in economics for two reasons: 1) to help me better invest and handle my entrepreneurial ventures and protect my family, and 2) better understand how war will arrive in Europe, and better figure out what the large 4GW non-state actor force we are a part of can do to topple the corrupt Western European governments busily committing civilizational suicide (and allowing the wholesale rape of their nations’ children and the steady advent of real-life-horrific-as-you-can-imagine-war).

So as a result this article contains five semi-economic observations I think are important to the events we are witnessing on the continent and across the world as a whole.


One: Germany As Hostage Taker

This something I didn’t realize but is very relevant. To segue into it I will quote an excellent economics blog I have been reading lately called Capitalist Exploits.

Here it is:

I’m not sure if you saw it but 3 weeks ago the obvious was finally laid out to bare by none other than Mario Draghi.

“If a country were to leave the Eurosystem, its national central bank’s claims on or liabilities to the ECB would need to be settled in full.”

Even though the pressures have been mounting, there has been scant comments from the elites with regards to the question on everyone’s lips. What happens when/if a member state actually leaves?

Draghi’s threat to member states who are checking the exits and considering their alternatives is the first real public step towards acknowledging the problems.

As Reuters reports:

“Based on data to end-November from the Target 2 payment system, that would leave Italy with a 358.6 billion euro ($383.1 billion) bill. The system records flows of payments between euro zone countries.

The threat of defaults on cross-border debts has often been credited as one element keeping the euro zone together throughout the financial crisis.

As these payments are not generally settled, weaker economies including Italy, Spain and Greece have accumulated huge liabilities towards Target 2 while Germany stands out as the biggest creditor with net claims of 754.1 billion euros.”

Basically what the article explains is that any country wanting to leave the Eurozone (France, Italy, Greece, whomever) is immediately liable for all debts owed to the Eurozone. Now I don’t totally understand what the means, or if the debts are owed to the EU itself or the European Central Bank or to Germany and other specific countries or a mix of all those things, but irregardless it seems to a bit of a big deal.

Gandalf warned Frodo about the rise of Angela Merkel...

Gandalf warned Frodo about the rise of Angela Merkel…

It also paints Germany in an even worse light (depending on what perspective you are taking). Not only has it- with Angela Merkel at the rein- built up this massively powerful and bureaucratic mega-entity of the EU, with negative effect after negative effect rippling across the continent, not only is it twisting these poor, financially illiterate Southern-European governments/countries for every dime they foolishly borrowed, not only is it imprisoning citizens for questioning mass immigration, not only is it threatening Hungary and Poland if they don’t take infinity Muslims, it also holds a symbolic gun to the head of any of those countries who wish to leave.

I’m not sure what the long-term effect of this is, but it is certainly one more layer of dysfunction embedded in the toppling house of cards that is liberal, globalist Europe.

 

Two: Why Turkey Is So Confident

In recent days, as VivatEuropa helpfully pointed out and linked to, Turkey has a) encouraged Turks in Europe to have big families to demographically take over the continent, b) threatened to release massive numbers of (young, male) ‘refugees’ to swarm northward across the EU, and c) thrown out a bunch of other threats and invectives, even referring to Turks in Europe with the Ottoman word for ‘advance troops’.

They are obviously confident, and I think the reason can be explained in economic/demographic terms.

Turkey’s birthrate (ironically) dropped to around 2.0 children per woman ten-fifteen years ago. Erdogan understands demographics, and this means that they are on the cusp of a 25-30 year period of profound economic strength. The reason is that this means they will have a bulge societally in the 30-55 year old demographic, with smaller numbers of old people and children (dependents). Those in the 30-55 year old age range are the most economically productive members of society, and this is why Japan, the US, Western Europe, and China all had economic boom times when their demographics were at equivalent points following their own respective birthrate drops.

Now of course eventually when this period passes Turkey’s economic growth will slow back down (presuming their birthrates don’t go back up of course), but that is far in the future, and if they play their cards right and things don’t change they will probably rule half of Europe by that point anyway (unless folks like us are successful of course).

 


Three: In Europe, Muslims Are Like Old People

This point underscores the fact that ironically the economies in Europe are being HURT by the exact same forces the Turkish economy is being HELPED by.

This is because young Muslims in Turkey are driving its economy by starting businesses, working jobs, buying products, starting families, etc. They are driving growth in every sense of the word.

ab 4

In Europe, if you were looking down from on high, you might think the same thing was happening, but the difference is that there, they are on the whole net liabilities on the economy. The migrants and ‘refugees’ coming into Europe are not working, they are not starting business, they are living in government subsidized housing, they are eating government paid for food, they are receiving government-sponsored welfare checks, and (occasionally) being prosecuted in taxpayer-funded courthouses.

Tragically, these millions upon millions of young, 18-30 year old migrants that Europe is taking in, are the economic equivalent of 85 year-old old ladies, or 2 year old orphans whose every need must be paid for by the state.

With Europe already in debt up to its eyeballs and with its own population being older than any in the history of the world (apart from present day Japan perhaps), it has for all intents and purposes imported what economically amounts to an army of geriatrics, only these ones are angry young Muslims with sky-high asabiya and disdain/hatred for their adoptees.

 

Four: The Fed Are Like College Professors

This is shifting gears a bit but is something I found interesting.

It comes from Robert Kiyosaki at Rich Dad Radio. Kiyosaki is the author of Rich Dad, Poor Dad, the greatest financial literacy/self-improvement book ever written. I have read it and every other book he has written a dozen times, they are incredible.

He does a weekly radio show/blog where he interviews people about economics and investing and building wealth.

I can only link to the radio show as a whole and not the individual episode, but he recently interviewed two authors about the Fed (or Federal Reserve) in the United States.

Tell me this face does not inspire confidence...

Tell me this face does not inspire confidence…

It was very interesting and actually most people do not even know what ‘the Fed’ truly is. Arguments were given on both sides about whether one could accurately call the Federal Reserve
‘conspiracy-theory based’ or dangerous or just inept. Koyasaki’s position was that it is basically inept. He argues that the people who sit on it, and its Chairman (Chairwoman) Janet Yellen, are basically academic egg-heads who have spent all their lives in universities and have absolutely no idea how the real world or business works.

His two guests had somewhat similar but different positions, but all three agreed that the Federal Reserve is engaging in disastrous decision making that is likely going to make the coming economic crash they all predict that much worse.

From my own layman’s economic theorizing it seems the next crash will be based around (among other things) commercial real estate, retail, auto loan defaults, and student loan defaults (or those will be its symptoms at least), and if the debt-fueled economy as a whole really goes belly up, that will certainly have significant influence on the political situation in both America with Trump and in Europe.

That brings us to the final observation.


Five: Things Bode Well For Europe

When I say this, I mean they bode well for us – we that want to see the Merkel’s and Hollande’s and other war criminals fall, to be replaced by patriots who will right the sinking ship of Europe.

The reason that I believe things bode well for us is that it seems to me (from all this reading I am doing) that when things start to go downhill, massive amounts of money will go to where it is considered safest.

Even though it is likely the United States economy will be reeling too, it will still be the best of a bunch of bad bets.

I’ll again quote Capitalist Exploits:

When allocating capital, imagine for a minute you’re managing a few billion dollars (as I know some of you are). Now let me ask you where you’re going to allocate looking out over the next couple of years?

Europe? Looks to be on the precipice and uncertainty is rising, not falling
Emerging markets? Lost $60 billion in December and are typically considered more of a “risk on” trade
The US?

A blow up in Europe, which looks more and more inevitable with each passing day, will see capital flee to the land of warm apple pie.

This will have to go somewhere, and so much of it will go into treasuries causing the dollar to strengthen and stoke inflationary fears.

Much will head into equities too.

This too will stoke fears of inflation and the clowns Fed who are way behind the curve already will scurry to catch up, raising rates. Ironically, raising rates will further exacerbate the spreads between US and non-US paper causing more capital to head to the US, creating a self perpetuating cycle.

This will actually be highly contractionary for the global economy as it will cause further dollar funding shortages (read my piece on the eurodollar market for more on this topic).

As the rest of the world contracts, the US will seemingly appear to be the only safe place to park capital. More self perpetuating capital influx.

So, while normies across the land currently have a 10% chunk of their massive, collective 401k hopes invested in Europe through ‘international’ funds, and while Hedge Funds from Aruba to Switzerland have investments made in Stockholm Migrant Housing, Inc, and a bunch of German and United Kingdom real estate REIT’s, all that money will be rapidly sucked out of the Eurozone once thing start to fall apart.

All these economic folks I have been reading are predicting that Europe will fall apart, and they aren’t even focused on the social (mass-immigration) side of things. We know that the situation in Europe is a thousand times worse than most people are aware of, and the combination of all these factors suggests very fluid times in Europe.

That is hopeful, for fluid is EXACTLY how we need things to be.

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Comments (20)

  1. gris bosque 4 months ago

    A thought;
    considering the current reality in Europe, it is quite likely that both the US military and the Russian military will have to once again send in their armies together in Europe to fix things.
    (hello Comrads!)
    This means that an era of Amer/Russ cooperation is likely. so if you have venture capital, it might be good to consider investing in appropriate joint ventures now.

    • shadowman 4 months ago

      “…quite likely that both the US military and the Russian military will have to once again send in their armies together in Europe to fix things.”

      That’s exactly what *I* was thinking…… 🙂

      Heck, wouldn’t it be *awesome*! The native Europeans fighting against the Muslims, being interrupted by the US sweeping in from the west and Russia sweeping in from the east.
      Just like old times! It would not surprise me at all if Trump has thought about this scenario. Thought about at least *asking* Russia in several years’ time to sweep into Europe and help to knock over the treasonous governments there.

      Let’s face it – Russia hates the Muslims as much as *anyone* (and has suffered from them as much as many other countries), and the *last* thing they want on their doorstep is an Islamised Europe.

      • Author
        Admin 4 months ago

        What did you make of Trump and Merkel’s meeting Shadowman?

        I wasn’t really sure what to expect. Certainly the awkwardness and evident mutual dislike was there. I hope Trump questioned her one on one about whether she actually thinks Germany has a future at this point, especially if it keeps importing millions of immigrants each year.

        It was so bizarre seeing them together. Not sure what I was hoping for. Maybe calling her a war criminal and refusing to let her in the country? I guess he can’t do that at this point though unfortunately…

        • shadowman 4 months ago

          Hi Admin –

          I didn’t see their meeting (unfortunately) although I read that they were meeting. I’m not at all surprised at your description of the meeting as being awkward and having “evident mutual dislike”.

    • Author
      Admin 4 months ago

      I think going ‘long’ on any kind of defense industry stuff that would benefit from turmoil in Europe would be a good bet these days…

      I certainly agree, there would be few things more glorious than the armies of the US and Russia, Trump and Putin, sweeping across Europe together to expel the foreign hordes and restore order and peace and beauty to the land. I hope that it will indeed one day come to pass 🙂

      We would have to install the AfD and NF and SD’s in power though so the Suicidalists could not claw their way back to dhimmitude status in a few short years 🙂

      • forwardobserver 4 months ago

        One of the big scenarios in European History I look for some insight into what the “resolution of the situation” may look like is the German Liberation War of 1813. The French had garrisons in the states of the Confederation of the Rhine. The situation was rather placid for a number of years and then BOOM! As soon as the coalition of foreign nations won a great victory at Leipzig, everybody and their brother took a whack at the French. Many idealists, students, patriotic veterans of past wars, simple shopkeepers, all formed jaeger corps and attacked and harried the French. This snowball effect quickly set the stage for the invasion of France itself and the first exile of Bonaparte.
        It may well take foreign intervention to really get the Europeans into action against the occupiers. In 1813 it was a heavily Russian intervention. May well be the same in the current scenario.

        • Author
          Admin 4 months ago

          Yes, I think Foreign Intervention hit Europe today with Edrogan’s comments combined with the attack in London…

          I think Jaeger Corps are needed and swiftly.

      • VivatEuropa 4 months ago

        I often think of all the little countries Washington bullies and perpetrates regime change upon; and of all the white European fratricide of World War ll – if only Washington felt compelled to, and had the moral fiber and political will to, liberate Europe again, this time from its current oppressors/destroyers! I, too, have been thinking lately: perhaps Russia, before Europe is lost?!

        And then, a capable regime established again in Libya (perhaps Gaddafi’s son?), restoring the cork in the bottle of Africa. And then, a Europe free and independent of Washington, and of Moscow, let alone not allowing itself to be bullied by Turkey, self-sufficient and responsible for its own defense,

        One can at least dream!

        • Author
          Admin 4 months ago

          The only consolation I can see if Western Europe completely falls is this (and its a stretch)… at least as a result Eastern Europe will at that point be strong, defensive minded, and purposefully growing their population and purposefully cultivating a future of European culture/heritage… WHEREAS if the Islamizaiton of Europe had never happened in the first place, perhaps ALL of Europe, both West and East, would end up like Japan, and dying of wholly internal problems (not having children, suicide, anime addiction, etc).

          Of course, I would rather we just save Western Europe too, and I have not given up hope yet!

  2. dashui 4 months ago

    I’m betting that the major economic problem will be in gov. Bonds. The stock market going up will put pressure on the Fed to raise rates so they won’t be blamed for creating a bubble. With rising rates gov. Budget will go into debt service. So money will flee to the stock market and hard assets.

    • Author
      Admin 4 months ago

      Excellent point Dashui.

      Also in southern Europe especially, if the whole global economy turns down they are going to be even more hard pressed to keep making payments to their creditors up north in Deutschland. I really find it amazing that the economies of Italy, Greece, France, etc are still functioning even at this point. I think that Southern Europe will soon be wishing they could trade places with their cousins in South America.

  3. Well written, informative, and a good read.

    I believe it was Robert Kagan who predicted Turkey’s eventual rise on the basis on clean energy (water power). The demographic burst gives them all the more force, as does the ability to hold the EU ransom for stemming the tide of immigration and ability to use this force as a battering ram.

    American think tanks have already planned for the Eu’s complete collapse, although one could just as fairly say this is no different from any other wargames scenario that international policy planners prepare for.

    Just a small point: regardless, not irregardless.

    • Author
      Admin 4 months ago

      Hey Armed With Knowledge-

      Thanks for the comment. The Ottoman Empire was one of the more powerful entities on earth over the last couple thousand years, and it seems true that the 21st Century will see the re-emergency of old empires (Russia, Ottoman Turkey, Austro-Hungary via the Visegrad Nations). I could envision many scenarios where in 30-40 years Turkey controls- through one means or another- a big chunk of territory analogous to what it once did back in 1850/1650/etc.

      Is this your site: armedwithknowledge.blogspot.com ? I was checking it out after you included it in the comment box. I enjoyed watching that Australian 60 minutes clip from Sweden I had never actually seen that before.

      Thank you for pointing out the spelling error too. I am pretty ocd about spelling so hopefully getting caught like that is a rare occurence lol.

      Please keep sharing any other thoughts/links/observations you have.

      -Julian

      • Armed 4 months ago

        Correct!

        The Soros 60 minutes video is also interesting if you haven’t seen it.

        • Author
          Admin 4 months ago

          I have not. Do they interview him or is it just an investigation type piece? I will check it out.

  4. Dashui 4 months ago

    Start the day with a black pill:

    • Author
      Admin 4 months ago

      Hey Dashui- thanks for the link. I am going to use it as a source in the chapter I am working on in the new book so it was highly useful beyond just its black-pilling nature 🙂 I had been trying to find a good source that speaks to the demographic situation with young men and had not been having any luck so it helps me out a ton actually.

      I found this one too that I thought was interesting: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Kv_VmSizrA

      I actually went total nerd on it and even measured my own fwhr lol. I don’t think it indicates for ‘racism’ just higher testosterone, although I am sure guys with higher testosterone are more prone to give politically incorrect answers to survey questions, etc. Mine was 1.85 if measured from top of lip to top of eyebrow, higher obviously if top of lip to eyelids.

  5. shadowman 4 months ago

    One thing that has occurred to me (on and off over the last few weeks).
    Taking the scenario of a combined US-Russian invasion of Europe one step further, what about a combined invasion of North Africa?

    Such an invasion would give a solid-and-secure buffer against the “savage countries” (Islamic countries). Given that people from these countries have been invading Europe anyway, it’d be “tit for tat”.
    Heck – if I were Trump, I would suggest to Putin that a combined force take everything in Africa north of about the equator. “Divvy the land up” beforehand, reaching an agreement with the Russians, and go for it.
    ( Kenya could possibly be left – they seem pretty Western. ) I’d take Saudi Arabia at the same time to destroy the seat of Islam and divvy up the oil with Russia.
    Sure, the UN would go bonkers but no-one listens to them or takes them seriously now.

    If one were bold enough to do such a thing, I reckon that one might as well “go the whole hog” and destroy all Islamic countries, especially Pakistan and Indonesia. The Pakis have nukes so India’s help there would be very useful. ( Hmmm…… I wonder if a derivative of the Stuxnet virus could be used against Pakistan’s nukes…… ? )

    • Author
      Admin 4 months ago

      Kenya was regarded as the ‘Switzerland of Africa’ back in the 80’s. My Godmother spent some time there actually. Since that time though my understanding is that they have had continuous immigration from Somalia and that with it the country has sort of gotten less and less of a success story (funny that…)

      I would be content to leave all of the Muslim world alone if we could just preserve Europe. One could argue that’s just the attitude that is the problem though. Its interesting to wonder if the lack of drive to conquer OTHER lands raises the possibility of ones OWN land being conquered or is an indicator in that direction.

      I do agree though the thought of Putin and Trump standing over a big map divvying things up is a pleasant one lol 🙂

      • shadowman 4 months ago

        “Its interesting to wonder if the lack of drive to conquer OTHER lands raises the possibility of ones OWN land being conquered or is an indicator in that direction. ”

        Yes indeed. I think there *is* something in what you say.
        Forgetting invasion for a moment, *Sweden* has not fought a war in over 200 years. I am convinced that along with 40+ years of leftist brainwashing, that fact has made them utterly complacent and has made them take their (disappearing) freedom for granted. They haven’t had to fight for freedom in the way that so many other countries have.

        I think you value something that you have fought for a lot more than something you are just given.

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