This post is based off a question that one of our loyal readers- Laguna Beach Fogey- asked in the comments section.
I thought it was such a good question that I ended up turning my response into a post.
Laguna Beach asked: “What are your thoughts on probability of intervention by NATO, U.S., and Russia when war breaks out in Europe?”
He also asked: “What is the likelihood of European Nationalists forming foreign volunteer brigades for overseas fighters?” I think this is a great question too, but I will give my thoughts on it in another post. For this one I am going to focus on the first question.
Therefore, with regards to possible foreign intervention in future 4th Generation Warfare in Europe, my thoughts (external agent by external agent) are the following:
The US – I think it is unlikely that the US would intervene in Europe in any way, even when things really hit the fan in a few years time. While there are still many White Americans who identify culturally and sympathize politically with Europe, there are few conceivable politicians apart from Donald Trump who one could imagine sharing these concerns. America is more and more a multi-racial, multicultural nation, and it seems increasingly unlikely that it would intervene in Europe once things start falling apart.
In The Next 100 Years, geopolitical theorist George Freidman articulates that American’s primary strategic imperative has been and remains the desire not to see a rival emerge to compete with our status as the world’s only superpower. Therefore, according to Friedman, what America has done historically, and what it will continue today throughout the next century, is to always act strategically in such a way as to counter-balance other world powers against each other to prevent any one of them from becoming a clear rival. A classic example of this was Nixon warming relations with China in order to counter-balance China against Russia.
The relevance to a future 4GW-failed state Europe is that America would be reluctant to intervene, unless they felt that the crisis was allowing another world power or emerging world power to attain more power and as a result begin to threaten American supremacy.
NATO – NATO stands for North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and was created during the Cold War to combat the treat of Soviet Communism and defend against “The Iron Curtain”. It is currently made up primarily of European and Commonwealth nations. Many of these are the same ones plunging towards civil war, and I think that once Europe reaches that point, the last thing on their minds will be defense against Russia. Also the weapons systems and that sort of thing that is an important component of these mutual defense systems will have little utility in an on the ground, ethnically based civil-war type situation, like the one in Western Europe will be.
Russia – I think the likelihood of Russia becoming involved (in some way) with the war in Europe as very high. I base this upon the following:
1) Russia identifies with ethnic Europeans racially and culturally. They will not want to stomach the extermination and/or enslavement of White Europeans, despite any hints of Schadenfreude that might have bubbled up early on.
2) They also identify with Western Europe because they share the existential threat of Islam and Jihadism. While they have not engaged in the same suicidal mass Muslim-importation that Western Europe has, they have a large number of Muslim citizens in historically Islamic areas that happen to be within Russia, and within former Soviet Union states that now exist as semi-Russian entities on Russia’s borders. They have not forgotten the Beslan School Hostage Crisis and the mass rapes of Russian women in Chechnya during the 1990’s.
3) Russia is very dependent on European consumption of Russian energy products. As a result Russia will be highly likely to financially support/arm preservationist elements within Western Europe. Russia would suffer economically if all of Western Europe became failed states and could no longer import natural gas in a safe and profitable (for Russia) manner (in addition to other trade with Russia).
There are two other external forces who I also believe would intervene and who I want to include. The first is ‘sort of’ external, but I will include them because it is impossible to talk about Russian intervention without them. They are the:
Visegrad Nations – At the same time the Russians are arming and supporting European-Preservationist in Western Europe, the Poles and Hungarians will be doing the exact same thing, for very overlapping reasons. First and foremost is the threat of majority Muslim nations (or failed states) on their Western frontiers. The second is the fact that they share an ethnic and cultural identity with the Western Europeans. The third is economic.
However, their overlap with Russia on these strategic interests provokes complications, because the Eastern Europeans are paranoid as all heck about Russian aggression. So you will have this weird dynamic where two sides that are in many ways violently opposed (Eastern Europe and Russia) both having almost identical strategic interests in Western Europe. We will come back to this momentarily, after we discuss another nation that I must throw in, for it will by this time surely be the 500 lb. gorilla in the room.
Turkey – Turkey is projected by George Freidman in his book The Next 100 Years to become one of the major superpowers on earth. His book was written around 10 years ago but the time since then has surely seen events play out in ways to solidify his prediction. In that time Turkey’s economy has improved, they have seen many of their Sunni Arab rivals wither in power, they have seen the rise of a powerful autocratic ruler (Erdogan) with a political program based in Neo-Ottomanism (Turkish expansionism, particularly vis a vis Europe), and they have now achieved a position of MASSIVE leverage over Europe thanks to the ‘Refugee Crisis’, and Angela Merkel’s new treaty with them.
Two more relevant points about Turkey are the following:
1) Its demographics are on track to boost the economy dramatically. It has seen the same sudden downward shift in birthrates from 4+ children per woman to 2 that all Western powers saw in the late 1960’s and 70’s. This has a huge boosting effect for the economy starting about 20-30 years hence, as at that point there is a ‘bulge’ demographically in the age range most able to boost the economy- young professionals just starting families- as well as a dip in young people under 18 who require a lot of money to be cared for. This massively boosts productivity, boosts investment, boosts savings, and boosts tax revenues. This will increase Turkey’s economic standing dramatically just as Western Europe descends into civil war and failed statehood.
2) In just two more months, Turkey’s 80 million citizens will have free access to the European Schengen (Free Movement) Zone. As a result Turkish influence will spread throughout Europe that much faster. Evidence of this can be seen in the fact that there are already major scuffles in Germany between Turkish and Kurdish groups. Look to this sort of thing becoming more and more pronounced as Western Europe falls apart and Turkish influence grows.
From this we can speculate that –
America will be unlikely to intervene in Europe. NATO will be impotent and unable to influence the situation much one way or another. The Eastern Europeans and the Russians will both have great cause to get involved, as will the Turks.
I am always highly resistant to speculating on nation against nation warfare vis a vis a future European civil war. When I speak of such a civil war, I mean exclusively 4th Generation Warfare between either non-state forces and states, or non-state forces and other non-state forces. However, Turkey and Russia are the two powers that could potentially represent a challenge to this. To some degree at least, 4GW failed-state chaos and violence in Western Europe might heighten the already-building tensions between these two regional (and increasingly global) powers.
What such a confrontation might look like is anyone’s guess. I think Turkish and Soviet troops battling on the Northern European plain or fighting air skirmishes over the Alps is highly unlikely. While it is true that warfare has been endemic to humanity for as long as humans have kept records, that sort of 2nd and 3rd Generation Warfare has to a large extent been relegated to the past. As a result I would posit that it is more likely the following things occur:
Prediction One: Turkey will increasingly take advantage of every opportunity possible to destabilize Europe and to increase the number of Muslims in Europe. They will do this both through open support of Muslim-Brotherhood type groups and all the other infinite Muslim charities and QUANGOS (Quasi-Autonomous Non-Governmental Organizations) and lobbying groups that exist, as well as through tacit support for and alliance with Islamic terrorists, mirroring their current relationship with ISIS. As Western Europe descends into 4th Generation Warfare and failed-statehood these positions will become more and more open, as Erdogan and his Neo-Ottoman base attempt to achieve the long-held Turkish dream of European subjugation.
Prediction Two: The Eastern Europeans and the Russians have both become increasingly vocal in their opposition to the European-Suicidalist/White Genocide policies of Angela Merkel and company in Western Europe. We are seeing a similar autocratic re-positioning in Eastern Europe as we saw in Russia in the late 1990’s, and as we are seeing now in Turkey. I believe this is an inevitable result of the 4GW world we are entering, where the only nation-states that survive fully-intact will be the ‘strong’, ‘intolerant’, and autocratic ones, who permit no rise of anti-state elements within their borders.
While the animosity and suspicion between Eastern Europe and Russia is of monumental proportions, based as it is upon centuries of warfare and bloodshed, I believe that eventually the equally monumental magnitude of problems in Western Europe will push them into a rough alliance. The horror that is going to soon infect Western Europe is of a level beyond the worst dreams of any of the impotent ideologues and brain-washed MEP’s currently ushering in its arrival. There are several hundred million people in Western Europe busily turning it into early 1990’s Yugoslavia. Mass-murder, mass-rape, ethnic cleansing, and untold other horrors are, in my opinion, imminent.
Therefore I predict that the Visegrad Nations of Eastern Europe will increasingly find themselves aligned with Russia, as each seek to prevent the death and enslavement of Western Europe, the subsequent refugee crisis (of White Europeans) that would result, and the arrival on their doorstep of vast Muslim nations all existing within the sphere of influence of Turkey. Lest this sound farfetched, examine this one bit of evidence: Within 1-5 years the majority of 18-30 year old men in Germany will be Muslim. These men are almost exclusively Sunni Muslims, and within this demographic at least half are Turks. This is more than enough to lead to war in Europe, to fulfill Turkish dreams of European conquest, and to drive Eastern-Europe and Russia into an alliance. Hopefully by that time there will be vast numbers of Western European men taking up arms themselves.