This article is about the question of whether Europe is headed for recession in 2018.
But first, let’s look backwards…
In the early 1930’s the Soviet Union’s government, under Joseph Stalin, began requisitioning grain, engaging in population resettlement, conducting executions and deportations to Siberia, and cracking down on priests and other societal leaders in the Ukraine.
They also engaged in forced industrialization, rationing, food requisitioning, and basically lots of horribly cruel and stupid stuff. Their purposeful actions were designed to effectively neutralize or kill the Ukrainian peasant class who they considered ‘counter-revolutionaries’. In other ways their actions were just plain human idiocy.
By 1933, millions of Ukrainians were starving to death. One recounting goes as follows:
Survival was a moral as well as a physical struggle. A woman doctor wrote to a friend in June 1933 that she had not yet become a cannibal, but was “not sure that I shall not be one by the time my letter reaches you.” The good people died first. Those who refused to steal or to prostitute themselves died. Those who gave food to others died. Those who refused to eat corpses died. Those who refused to kill their fellow man died. Parents who resisted cannibalism died before their children did.
Ultimately somewhere between 3 and 10 million Ukrainians would die as a result.
Europe’s Economy Today
These events happened in the early 1930’s, only 20 years before current European leaders like Angela Merkel were born.
That is important, because the leaders of that generation- the Baby-Boomers- have known nothing in even remotely like what happened in Ukraine during their lives. Indeed, their lives have been almost completely devoid of strife, difficulty, or discomfort.
Yet it would be the height of foolishness to believe that with millions of people starving to death less than twenty years before you were born, there is no reason to watch out for ill effects of your actions.
Yet the Baby-Boomer leadership of Europe has engaged in an insane fantasy for the last forty years, trying to create their Cultural-Marxist utopia, with no thought to the consequences.
I don’t think there will be millions of Europeans starving and eating their children in the next twenty years, BUT there are a number of factors that suggest that a severe recession or depression may be coming to Europe. And human history should serve as a warning to us, to never underestimate unforeseen consequences, as well as the capacity of people who think they are “on the right side of history” to cause great damage.
Europe Recession 2018
Here are the reasons for the coming depression, as I see them:
Europe Currently Has The Highest Levels Of Debt In Its History
Right now in Western Europe, both the governments and the citizens have higher levels of debt than ever before in history.
As we can see in the above graph- with the exception of Japan- European countries possess the greatest debt to gdp ratios of any nations on earth. The above graph was from 2015, but things have changed little. Ireland’s debt was and is almost 400% of gdp!
The below graph breaks down household debt to household income, which is equally high:
As one can see, many of the countries have insanely high debt to income levels among their citizens. This is even more pronounced of a problem- in my opinion- because of the fact that there are so many women in the workforce. This has negative effects we will see below, and especially when indebtedness will mean that its impossible for women to stop working without they or their family going bankrupt.
This debt would not be so bad if the average individual’s age in Europe was 27, like in India or Mexico. If this was the case they would be able to see continued economic growth which would help pay down the insane levels of debt.
The exact opposite is the case in Europe though, where the Baby-Boomer generation is about to retire on mass.
The Demographic Bomb
The Baby-Boomer generation has been described as the “pig in the python” of Western demographics.
Here is the demographic pyramid of Germany:
The above graph was from several years, ago, which means all the lines on it have moved up one level or so, but the “pig in the python” is clearly visible in the massive lines jutted out from the 50-60 year old area. Compare those to the 15-25 lines.
This is the exact OPPOSITE of what societies have looked like through all of human history. Indeed the only other society that has seen such a transformation is Japan.
Here is Japan’s historical demographic shift in graph form:
The pyramid on the left is what healthy societies have looked like throughout the last 300 years of human history, when birthrates started rising dramatically. The one in the middle is Japan in 2005, which actually looks substantially better than Germany in 2015. The one on the right is Japan in 2050, although its arguable it will be even worse, as a lot of the forward projections are done with birthrates higher than what they currently are.
What is important is that starting in the mid 90’s, when Japan’s “Baby-Boom” (which was twenty years older than the European and American Baby-Boomers) started retiring, their stock market fell by 50% and has never recovered. They have essentially been stuck in a depression ever since, with steadily increasing debt, steadily decreasing growth, and lower and lower interest rates.
This brings us to the next issue in Europe, which is interest rates.
Governments typically lower interest rates to try to catalyze economic growth and an increased velocity of money. If Europe’s economies plunge in the next year that would be the normal course of action. HOWEVER, the nations of Western Europe and the European Central Bank ALREADY DID THIS in response to the 2008 crisis. Indeed they were so desperate to ward off a depression that they lowered interest rates to NEGATIVE LEVELS, something never before seen in human history. Those negative interest rates seem at this point to have been a big failure, but the relevance is the fact that the ‘secret weapon’ of interest rate reduction to stimulate economies out of recessions has already been used. Europe no longer possesses that weapon in its arsenal.
Not only is Europe about to see all of the above variables explode at the same time, but the greatest explosive factor of all hasn’t even been mentioned yet. That is- of course- the massive, unprecedented levels of immigrants that have been imported by Europe’s liberal elites.
As we know, the nations of Sweden and Germany both already have or will by 2020 have their native 18-29 year old populations become a minority, and foreign, immigrant, primarily Muslim 18-29 year old men will be the majority.
Here is Black Pigeon Speaks on that very topic:
As he points out in the video, fertility rates also differ vastly between native Europeans and the steadily rising number of Muslim ‘guests’:
The above image shows the birthrates of Muslim citizens of various European countries vs their native citizens. I think one could make an argument these statistics don’t show the reality either, as there is a massive surplus of Muslim men compared to women in Europe, which is- depending on how the numbers are counted- going to skew this kind of thing. Basically with such a fluid, incoming population I think its likely harder to count birthrates than it is with a static population like the native Europeans.
The following graph shows roughly what will happen to nations where the Muslim vs non-Muslim birthrates are so skewed, even when the Muslims begin as the minority.
Beyond all the obvious problems, the biggest issue with this flood of Muslim immigrants is that the vast, vast majority are demographic ‘liabilities’ from an economic perspective, in that they cost the European governments way more money than they produce in tax revenue (which up til this point has been almost an afterthought compared to terrorism, Sharia Law, and mass-rape epidemics).
From an economic angle this was bad enough over the last several decades, where there were massive numbers of Baby-Boomers making big incomes and paying big taxes every year, but with all those Baby-Boomers now retiring, and all expecting their socialized societies to pay for their healthcare/etc/etc, you suddenly have a situation in which a very small number of Millenial and Gen-X workers are going to be expected to pay the tax revenue to take care of a huge demographic bulge of elderly Baby-Boomers, PLUS a huge demographic bulge of young Muslim men.
The result looks obviously quite disastrous.
All in all, these variables combine to suggest that nothing but trouble is heading Europe’s way.
Not just economically, but culturally as well.
If Millenials could suddenly start having large broods of children that would help, but I think we are going to be a little busy keeping the Baby-Boomers from starving to death and fighting rearguard civil wars against the Muslim armies steadily taking over the continent.