One thing we haven’t spent much time analyzing on this site is the economic situation in Europe. While the economic stability of Western European nations is of course more than germane to a discussion of their future(s), there has been more than enough social or political news that has kept our eyes off the economic side of the equation. A number of new facts and developments, however, suggest that Western Europe and the European Union itself are standing on increasingly shaky ground financially, and may soon enter a severe recession.
I have been increasingly suspicious about this for several months now, since learning about the housing bubble in Sweden, and the fact that 140 year mortgages are now common there. The idea of people getting a 140 year mortgage is obscene and ridiculous, and, to my eyes at least, pretty sure proof that an economy is massively overheated and over-leveraged. 30 year mortgages are the typically the longest residential mortgages we have in the states (sometimes there are 40 year ones for commercial properties), and even 70 years ago, down payments were usually 50% and mortgages were of the 2-4 year variety. The idea of people taking out a 140 year mortgage is absurd, and suggests to me that property values are dangerously inflated in countries like Sweden, the UK, etc.
An article from The Telegraph today suggest others are thinking the same thing:
Jim Mellon, the investor who correctly forecast the last economic recession, now predicts “years of turbulence” for the European Union (EU) and the “breakup” of the euro currency.
Mr. Mellon — referred to be some as ‘Britain’s answer to Warren Buffett’ — has concluded from his assessment of the current economic climate that Britain is “better off outside the European Union in a comfortably appointed lifeboat in the English Channel, as the Euro Titanic sinks to the bottom of the ocean.”
The reason Mr. Mellon’s assessment is worth listening to is because he was one of the few economists to forecast the most recent economic recession, correctly predicting that the U.S. housing crisis would be the “trigger” for that in his book ‘Wake Up!: Survive and Prosper in the Coming Economic Turmoil’.
Mr. Mellon sets out what he says are the clear reasons for the impending collapse. France and Italy are in “debt traps,” meaning the are not able to grow their way out of evermore expanding debts.
That Telegraph article also segues into another one– also published today- that details the fact that UK housing prices are going down at a faster rate than any time in the last 8 years.
In addition to this, it sounds as if that famous bellweather investor (and harbinger of doom) George Soros is betting against Europe as well. Breitbart today published an article elaborating on this. In it, they describe how Soros- who normally no longer makes day to day decisions for his investment portfolio- is getting his hands dirty yet again, taking a direct role in moving his investments around to hedge against Europe (among a number of other things). Breitbart commendably points out the sickening contradiction inherent in Soros’s statements that 1) Western Europe cannot financially survive the migrant crisis, and 2) his statement’s that Western Europe ‘must’ take more refugees (because of moral and ‘historical’ reasons, of course).
Soros has made billions by betting against national economies and currencies for decades now, and if he is hedging his investments against Europe, that should be taken as a strong sign that Europe’s economies could soon flounder.
This should really come as no surprise to sober thinkers of course, for in all honesty how could Western Europe’s economies hope to thrive right now? In every single Western European country, birthrates are negative and have been that way for multiple decades. While a change from high to low birthrates can cause an economic boom in the short run, in the long run (which is now catching up with Europe) it is economic poison. In addition, all of those people these countries are bringing in (which a few even have the gaul to claim are offsetting the low birthrates) are individuals with huge rates of illiteracy, no sought-after job skills, and zero interest in being productive members of society. Indeed, they cost their host societies astronomical amounts of taxpayer money.
All of this suggests that the economic wheels are falling off of the European Union, and that bad times are coming its nations. This is good from our perspective of course though. For economic ruin would surely catalyze the fall of Western Europe’s corrupt genocidal governments that much faster, and allow us to take power and deal with the hordes of enemy Muslims seeking to take over our nations.
All in all, a recipe for a dark night, but a bright dawn.